Having played 33 matches in the EFL Championship this season, Luton Town find themselves rock bottom on 28 points, 2 points behind Hull City who sit 21st, whilst also having played a game less. This comes after relegation from the Premier League where they were the Bookies’ favourites to go down, however, took it to the final day, before their fate was sealed after a 4-2 defeat to Fulham and Nottingham Forest beating Burnley 2-1. The Hatters, now, are at serious risk of a double relegation, a feat last achieved by Sunderland in 2018.
This comes as a surprise to many, with a really talented squad, including Alfie Doughty, who was in the conversation for the England squad, with the lack of left-backs becoming apparent during the Three Lions’ Euro 2024 campaign. Teden Mengi and Elijah Adebayo were linked with moves away back to Premier League clubs in the Summer. An abundance of Championship experience including Carlton Morris, who scored 20 during Luton’s promotion season, Tahith Chong, Marvellous Nakamba, Thomas Kaminski, Isaiah Jones, Josh Bowler and Victor Moses.
This squad was led by the highly-rated Rob Edwards, until the Welshman left the club by mutual consent on the 9th of January. This was despite penning a four-year deal ahead of the 24/25 season.
Only 5 days later, on the 14th of January, Edwards’ replacement was found with Matt Bloomfield being appointed. This comes after a successful spell at Wycombe Wanderers, where he won two League One Manager of the Month awards back-to-back in October and November. However, being over a month into a three-and-a-half-year contract, Bloomfield is yet to taste victory, drawing three times and losing four times as of the 20th of February. The most recent result being a frustrating 1-1 draw with Plymouth Argyle. The team directly above Luton Town in 23rd.
You have to go back to Gameweek 22 on the 20th of December 2024 to see the last time Luton won a match, which was a 2-1 victory over Derby County at Kenilworth Road.
But where has it all gone wrong?
The tactical set-up of The Hatters has been a back-three under Edwards, however there was a switch to a back-four under the new management up until very recently, with the previous two matches seeing Bloomfield revert back to the back-three. This suggests a more counter-attacking approach, which makes the 45% average possession understandable, which ranks 19th in the Championship.
A pretty damning statistic, however, is the 0.94 goals per game, which is the lowest amongst all clubs in England’s second tier. This comes as a surprise, with the availability of Carlton Morris, who, as said before, scored 20 goals two seasons ago, and Elijah Adebayo, who managed double digits in the Premier League last season. Morris is Luton’s top goalscorer this season with 7 and Adebayo having 5. It’s not like the pair have suffered with injury either, with them being involved in 29 and 32 of Luton’s 33 games this season, respectively.
The back-three is usually meant to mean a more stable defensive approach, however, this isn’t apparent at Kenilworth Road with Luton averaging 1.61 goals conceded per game which ranks 21st in the Championship. This comes a little bit more understandable with the knee injury suffered by Teden Mengi in early December, keeping him out of action until April.
Away form has been a struggle with only 5 points earned on the road from 16 games, with the only win coming at The Den against Millwall. This comes with the next away match being against fierce rivals Watford, who have been very tough to beat at Vicarage Road under Tom Cleverley. To be fair to The Hatters, in the reverse-fixture at Kenilworth Road, Luton Town destroyed Watford by three goals to nil. Speaking of home form, it’s been inconsistent to say the least. 6 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats, scoring 19 and also conceding 19.
In terms of xG, Luton Town actually rank 15th, having an expected points tally of 43, 15 more than their current 28. They’ve been underperforming on their xG For by 7 whole goals, whilst conceding 11 more than expected.
With thirteen matches to go of the EFL Championship season, it’s looking very bleak for Luton Town with the OPTA Super Computer giving them a 78.94% chance of going down. The lowest of all teams.